Hey there, bargain hunter. Here is a number worth sitting with: $126,198.
That was Bitcoin’s all-time high, hit on October 6, 2025. As of mid-June 2026, Bitcoin is trading in the low $60,000s — down roughly 50% from that peak. And the stocks tied to crypto have followed, some even harder.
Coinbase (COIN) sat at $444 on its 52-week high. It’s around $170 right now. MicroStrategy — now rebranded as Strategy — holds 843,706 BTC on its balance sheet and has watched its stock reprice sharply lower. Riot Platforms recently flashed a breakout signal with an 8.94% single-session gain, but it remains well off highs.
The question isn’t whether the drawdown happened. It did. The question is whether the underlying story changed.
What Actually Happened
Q1 2026 was rough for Coinbase. Revenue came in at $1.4B versus a $1.56B forecast, and EPS landed at -$1.49 against a $0.29 consensus — a massive miss. Transaction revenue fell 21% quarter-over-quarter as crypto markets pulled back more than 20% during the period. The stock dropped further.
But here’s what didn’t break: Coinbase maintained its 13th consecutive quarter of positive adjusted EBITDA at $303M. The balance sheet holds over $10 billion in cash and equivalents as of March 31, 2026. And the company guided Q2 2026 revenue toward $1.6B, rising to $1.9B by Q4 — implying management sees volume recovery ahead as Bitcoin stabilizes.
At $170 and a P/E of 60x, Coinbase is not cheap in the conventional sense. But that multiple compresses fast if volume recovers and crypto sentiment turns. The 52-week range tells the story: $139 on the low end, $444 on the high end. The asymmetry is real.
Strategy (MSTR) — A Different Animal
Strategy is not a software company anymore. It is a Bitcoin treasury vehicle. As of early June 2026, the company holds 843,706 BTC. In a notable disclosure, the company sold just 32 BTC during May 26–31 — its first Bitcoin sale since 2022 — for roughly $2.5 million. That’s a rounding error on an $843K BTC stack.
The stock trades at roughly 1.3x modified net asset value, below its historical premium. Bernstein analysts who follow the name have maintained a strong buy consensus and see the premium returning as Bitcoin finds a new floor.
The Bigger Frame
Bernstein’s crypto desk has forecast a so-called tokenization supercycle for 2026 — stablecoin supply jumping 56% to $420 billion, driven by fintech adoption from names like PayPal, Block, and Revolut. That’s a background tailwind for the Coinbase infrastructure business that has nothing to do with whether Bitcoin is at $60K or $100K on a given Tuesday.
Pro-crypto regulatory posture from Washington remains intact. Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows are still a structural bid. Institutional accumulation has not reversed.
The cycle isn’t dead. It’s correcting. Those are different things.
If you’re underweight crypto equity exposure and looking for a re-entry window — this might be the one people look back on. Or it might take another two quarters to bottom. That uncertainty is the whole game.
Full breakdown starts with understanding what you own and why. Start there.
