The stock peaked at $153 last October. It’s sitting near $95 today. That’s a 38% drawdown, and it comes at a strange moment: the underlying platform has never been bigger, the product roadmap has never been more ambitious, and one of Wall Street’s most closely watched analysts just called prediction markets Robinhood’s fastest-growing business segment.
Wrong company. That was Bernstein on Robinhood. Same idea.
What Q1 Actually Showed
The Q1 2026 miss got a lot of attention, and some of it was deserved. Revenue grew 15% year over year to $1.07 billion, but crypto revenue dropped 47% to $134 million as digital asset volumes contracted. EPS came in at $0.38, short of estimates. The stock fell 13% the day results hit.
What got less attention: Total Platform Assets climbed 39% year over year to $307 billion. Net deposits were $17.7 billion in the quarter, a 22% annualized growth rate. Robinhood Gold subscribers grew 36% year over year to a record 4.3 million. And Q2 was off to a strong start, with April equity and option volumes tracking for the highest month of the year.
Robinhood Gold subscribers hold roughly 5x the assets under custody of the average funded customer, and their net deposit growth runs meaningfully higher. That customer mix shift matters. This is becoming a different company than the one retail investors picture when they hear the name.
The New Revenue Story
Here’s where it gets interesting. Bernstein raised its price target on HOOD to $160 last week, projecting prediction markets segment revenue to reach $1.7 billion by 2028, representing a 64% compound annual growth rate. The firm believes prediction markets, perpetual futures, and Robinhood Chain could account for nearly a quarter of total revenue by 2028.
Robinhood built its own exchange, Rothera, through a joint venture. It launched the public testnet for Robinhood Chain, a financial-grade Ethereum Layer 2 built to support tokenized real-world assets that had already processed over 100 million transactions by Q1. It secured in-principle approval from the Monetary Authority of Singapore. It launched tokenized stocks in the EU. Q1 saw record volumes for prediction markets, futures, and index options.
Bernstein projected compound annual growth rates of 32% for revenue, 47% for EBITDA, and 49% for EPS between 2026 and 2028. That’s a very different model than a commission-free brokerage trying to survive crypto cycles.
The Valuation Tension
The pullback from $153 to around $95 reflects real concerns. Crypto revenue is volatile and highly sensitive to sentiment. The new consumer finance push, including a planned asset-backed securities raise tied to its credit card business, introduces credit risk the original platform never carried. The stock’s 52-week range of $63.52 to $153.86 tells you how wide the range of outcomes has been.
Of 25 analysts covering HOOD, 17 currently rate it Strong Buy. Needham raised its target to $123. Barclays sits at $122. Bernstein’s new target is $160. The average 12-month target is roughly $111, implying meaningful upside from current levels.
July 29 Is the Number
Q2 earnings hit after close on Wednesday. Analysts are modeling EPS of $0.41, essentially flat year over year. The bar is low. What matters isn’t the headline number. It’s whether prediction market volumes held after Q1’s record run, whether net deposit momentum continued, and whether any commentary on Robinhood Chain adoption shows that the tokenization bet is starting to convert into real revenue.
The company’s CFO already flagged April equity and option volumes tracking for the highest month of the year going into Q2. That’s a useful signal. But crypto could swing it either way. And the guidance tone around new product contribution is probably the most important thing said on the call.
A company with $307 billion in platform assets, a CFTC-licensed prediction exchange, a blockchain network now live, and a Singapore brokerage license in process is not the same company that went public in 2021. The July 29 call is when the market gets to decide if the discount is still justified.
